Fire-Keepers

Two (ok 3) sightings this morning that really bring some hope, that is if the super delegates are paying attention. One a long but interesting read from bringiton at Corrente Wire; the other… two very clear and understandable graphics here and here.

From bringiton:

After Hillary Clinton’s historic 41-point victory in the West Virginia primary, two questions loom: How long will Barak Obama cling to his shattered dreams of the presidency, and how much damage will be done to the Democratic Party by his stubborn and divisive refusal to accept the obvious?

And…

Obama’s best hope for convincing party elders of his general election viability was a decent showing in West Virginia, the closest thing there is to a “key” state for Democratic victory in the general election. Obama aides tried to dismiss the state’s importance – and avoid disturbing questions about why he is badly trailing McCain there in the polls – by saying that West Virginia won’t be part of their plans for victory in the fall.

It is difficult to see how Obama could win the general election without West Virginia; no Democrat, in fact, has taken the White House without West Virginia since 1916. When pressed for Electoral College details, Obama staffers could offer no specifics on what the general election campaign plan might be. “We’re still working on that, but don’t worry,” a source* cites one staffer as saying; “we’ll come up with something.”*

“Come up with something”? Hmmm… wonder who will the target be this time?

Concern Mounts Regarding Obama’s Electability

The superdelegates certainly are worried. Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have repeatedly taken the trouble to make clear they don’t need to force a decision before the end of June, giving them time to see how Obama does with the remaining primaries before they make any decision. What happened in West Virginia, the single biggest percentage loss ever suffered by a leading candidate this late in the primary process, must certainly give them great pause; the expected result of next week’s Kentucky primary will only add to those concerns. The last thing these leaders want is to nominate another flawed candidate, one who can win the activist part of the Democratic Party but will fail in the general election.

bringiton discusses the obvious, to some, numbers that matter and numbers that don’t and how the Obama camp seems to be focusing on the ones that don’t… albeit the ones that look good and make good media/blogger/O’Borg copy. In my mind, for what that’s worth, the fact that half the relevant voters will simply not vote for him… no matter how much ‘the good of the party’ is thrown at them should, and by the grace of God will, matter in the minds of the real deciders. Did I say deciders? I mean super delegates; how silly of me.

In their search for some positive spin, Obama’s supporters have reached for and pinned their argument on the only metric that does not matter at all: national polls. However, the country does not vote as a nation: In the general election, voters express their views in a state-by-state winner-take-all Electoral College process. As we saw in 2000, the White House does not always go to the candidate with the highest total in the popular vote. National polling does not matter. Only the Electoral College matters.

Even worse for Obama’s look-over-there-at-the-polls argument, examining state-by-state voter opinion can only heighten senior Democrats’ suspicions about Obama’s general election viability.

Heighten? Suspicions? Oh yes! Amen and let us pray. (Ok. I’m still an agnostic theist but gimme a break! Work with me here!)
On to those 2 easy-to-read-for-anyone-awake graphics:

Obama v McCain

And the better one for thinking Democrats; Clinton v McCain:

Unfortunately for the effectiveness of the Democratic primary process, Obama’s greatest popularity was among Democrats in states where Republicans dominate; those states will not be of any help in the fall. Obama’s current lead in primary delegates is an artifact of a flawed primary selection system, rather than a true expression of general election viability. In states where Democrats can actually win enough Electoral votes to clinch the White House, it is Clinton who is by far the most popular [...].

So here we are. It could all be over after Tuesday’s results in Oregon or… not. Oh to be a nano-fly in the minds of all the super delegates to know why they are waiting. Is it to in the hope that the results will be so clear cut after the last primary so they can justify everything that has gone before; hoping the screams will be muted by (their) reason. Or are they truly watching the real numbers… the electoral, hoping for some justification to give Hillary the nod and some way to avert the threatened riots and outrage from Obama supporters. I son’t think ever in my life I have wanted the psychic ability to predict the future or at the very least to read minds.

Tags: Clinton, Electoral, Info, Links, Opinion

This entry was posted by admin on Friday, May 16th, 2008 at 6:28 pm and is filed under Opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.